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What Are We Even Preparing Our Kids For?

A father's honest look at the K-12 system. Test scores at historic lows, 16,000 hours of inefficiency, and AI reshaping everything. The system isn't broken - it's obsolete.

Chris Groves

Chris Groves

— 8 min read
K-12 education collapse illustration

What should I tell my kids to study?

I sit with this question more than I'd like to admit. Not in the abstract, policy-debate way that politicians and think tanks wrestle with it. In the concrete, dinner-table way. My kids are in school right now. They're doing homework tonight. And I genuinely don't know if what they're learning will matter in ten years.

That's not cynicism. That's a father looking at the data and struggling with what he sees.

The Numbers Don't Lie

The 2024 Nation's Report Card landed like a gut punch. Forty-five percent of 12th graders scored below NAEP Basic in math -- the highest percentage ever to score that low. In reading, 40% of 4th graders fell below NAEP Basic, the worst showing since 2002.

These aren't pandemic blips. The National Center for Education Statistics noted that reading scores for the lowest-performing students are at historic lows -- "continued declines that began more than a decade ago." This rot started before COVID. The pandemic just accelerated it.

Meanwhile, 51% of adults feel that K-12 education is heading in the wrong direction. And 82% of public school teachers -- the people actually inside the system -- say education has gotten worse in the past five years.

When the teachers themselves are telling you the system is failing, it's worth listening.

16,000 Hours of What, Exactly?

Here's something that keeps nagging at me. A typical K-12 student spends approximately 16,000 hours in the education system across 13 years. That's a staggering investment of time.

But research shows that only about 62% of scheduled school time is spent on actual instruction. The rest goes to transitions, administrative tasks, recess, discipline, passing periods, and waiting. Matthew Kraft, an associate professor at Brown University, put it bluntly: "There's a huge gap between legislating the amount of time the kids should be in school and the actual amount of instruction that students get that's meaningful and high quality."

One study found that students with a seven-hour school day got only 29 extra minutes of academic time compared to students with a six-hour day. Less than half of the additional hour went to learning.

Add in chronic absenteeism -- one in four students was chronically absent in the 2022-23 school year -- and interruptions costing roughly 97 hours of instructional time per student per year, and the picture gets worse.

I look at this and think: we're asking kids to spend 13 years in a system designed in the 19th century, and a meaningful fraction of that time isn't even spent learning. The Prussian model was designed for a world that needed compliant factory workers. We don't live in that world anymore.

AI Is Already Here (Whether Schools Are Ready or Not)

While the system debates and deliberates, kids have moved on. A September 2025 RAND survey found that 54% of K-12 students already use AI for schoolwork -- up more than 15 percentage points in just two years. A Center for Democracy and Technology report showed 85% of teachers and 86% of students used AI tools in the prior school year.

This is happening whether adults approve or not. And it changes the equation fundamentally.

Consider what Khanmigo is doing. Khan Academy's AI tutor grew from 68,000 users to over 700,000 in a single year, with projections to pass one million in 2025-26. Unlike ChatGPT, Khanmigo doesn't just hand out answers. It uses the Socratic method -- asking questions that guide students to figure things out themselves. It adapts in real-time to each student's level. It's available 24/7. And 69% of teachers report that AI tools have improved their teaching methods.

Here's the thing that makes me both hopeful and frustrated: an AI tutor can personalize learning in ways that a teacher with 30 students physically cannot. Not because teachers aren't capable or dedicated, but because the math doesn't work. One human can't simultaneously meet 30 different students at 30 different levels. AI can.

The global AI education market hit $7.57 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $112 billion by 2034. That trajectory tells you everything about where this is going.

What I Actually Need My Kids to Learn

So I come back to the dinner-table question. If the traditional system is producing declining outcomes, and AI is reshaping how learning works, what should my kids actually be learning?

Right now, today, I need them to learn how to use AI tools properly. That's non-negotiable and immediate. When 51% of young people already use generative AI, and the World Economic Forum says 39% of existing skills will be transformed or obsolete by 2030, AI literacy isn't optional enrichment. It's the new baseline.

But that's the near-term need. The longer-term question is harder.

I need my kids to think critically. To ask good questions. To understand systems. To adapt when the ground shifts under them. Brookings argues that the focus should be on transferable skills -- critical thinking, adaptability, creativity -- because those travel well across any career, regardless of how the technology evolves.

The current system measures compliance. Sit in this seat for this many hours. Pass this test on this date. Move to the next grade at the same pace as everyone else, regardless of whether you've actually mastered anything. That model made sense when the goal was producing literate factory workers. It doesn't make sense when the goal is producing adaptable humans who can work alongside AI.

Parents Aren't Waiting for Reform

Here's what the data shows that policy debates miss: parents are already voting with their feet.

Homeschooling grew 51% from 2.5 million to 4.3 million students between 2019 and 2022. The Johns Hopkins Homeschool Hub shows this isn't slowing down -- annual growth hit 4.9% in 2024-25, nearly three times the pre-pandemic rate. Eighty percent of reporting states showed increases. Thirty-six percent of states hit their highest homeschool enrollment ever, exceeding even pandemic peaks.

The microschool movement has exploded alongside it. Approximately 1.5 million students now attend roughly 95,000 microschools nationwide -- equal to total Catholic school enrollment. Education Savings Account programs in 18 states now fund parents directly, letting families choose alternatives. Arizona provides roughly $7,000 per student, Florida about $8,000.

Public school enrollment is projected to drop by 16 million by 2030. That's not a trend. That's a structural collapse.

And I get it. I understand why parents are leaving. When you watch the system produce declining results while consuming more resources, and you have the means to do something different, you do something different. The reform is happening outside the system, because the system isn't reforming itself fast enough.

The Blue Collar Reality Check

I also think about trades. Honestly, probably more than most parents with my background would admit.

The data here is striking. Forty-seven percent of skilled trades workers now earn more than the median college graduate. An HVAC apprentice who starts at 18 can be earning $60,000 to $100,000+ by 21, while their college-bound peers are still accumulating debt with no guaranteed employment afterward. The average four-year degree now exceeds $150,000. The construction industry has 550,000+ unfilled positions in 2026.

Trades are also relatively AI-proof. You can't automate plumbing a bathroom or wiring a commercial building. These jobs require physical presence, real-world judgment, and hands-on skill.

But here's where I try to stay honest: trades aren't for everyone, just like college isn't for everyone. Not everyone wants physical labor. Not everyone's body will hold up to decades of it. The point isn't "trades are the answer." The point is that we've been told there's one path -- K-12 to college to career -- and that path is demonstrably breaking down. Acknowledging multiple valid paths isn't giving up on education. It's getting real about what education should mean.

So What Actually Needs to Change?

I don't pretend to have the complete answer. But I know what isn't working.

The 19th-century model of age-based progression, standardized timelines, and seat-time requirements doesn't make sense in a world where AI can personalize learning at scale. When a tool like Khanmigo can adapt to a student's individual level in real-time, the argument for making every kid sit through the same lesson at the same pace gets harder to defend.

The current system measures time served, not mastery achieved. It groups children by birthday, not by readiness. It moves at the speed of the slowest bureaucracy, not the fastest learner.

What if we measured competency instead of hours? What if kids could move at their own pace, supported by AI tools that fill gaps and accelerate strengths? What if the 16,000-hour timeline could be compressed for students who learn faster, and extended with genuine support for those who need more time?

These aren't fantasy questions. The technology exists today. Khanmigo is doing personalized, Socratic tutoring right now. AI can already assess individual student levels and adapt instruction in real-time. The barrier isn't capability. It's inertia.

The Honest Conclusion

I don't have it figured out. My kids are in a system I'm not sure I believe in, learning things I'm not sure will matter, on a timeline designed for a world that no longer exists.

What I do know is this: the data says the current system is failing by its own metrics. The alternatives are growing at rates that suggest this isn't a trend but a structural shift. AI tools exist today that can personalize learning in ways the classroom model was never designed for. And skilled trades offer viable, well-paying careers that we've culturally dismissed for too long.

As a father, I can't fix the system. But I can be honest about what the data shows, teach my kids to use the tools that will define their working lives, and keep multiple paths open for them.

The traditional K-12 model had a good run. But asking children to spend 13 years in a model designed for the industrial age, when AI can compress and personalize learning at a fraction of the time, isn't just inefficient. It's irresponsible not to question it.

Found This Helpful?

This is a personal perspective backed by public data. If these questions resonate with you as a parent, educator, or anyone watching the education system struggle to adapt, consider subscribing for more research-driven takes on where AI, education, and the future of work are heading.

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Sources

Academic Achievement Data

K-12 System Challenges

Instructional Time Research

AI in Education

Alternative Education Growth

Skilled Trades and Workforce

Future of Work

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